Wait, why are house prices falling in Melbourne?

By Evlin DuBose · · 2 min read
Fact Checked
Advertiser disclosure
Woman holding up question dialogue because she wants to know why house prices in Melbourne are falling

Property values tend to ebb and flow with market conditions. Home loan interest rates, average incomes, and buyer confidence can all change prices. 

But while capital cities like Sydney and Brisbane have experienced remarkable price growth in the last year, Melbourne hasn’t. In fact, according to property watchdog CoreLogic, home values in Melbourne fell -0.9% in the three months to January 2024. 

What’s going on?

Rental demand overpowers home buyers in Melbourne

Just because Melbourne house prices have been weaker than other capitals, doesn’t mean there isn’t a demand for housing, says CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen. It just depends on what type of housing you’re looking for.

Housing supply debates tend to focus on a national undersupply. Indeed, Housing Australia reports a shortfall of over 100,000 dwellings over the next four years.

However, high listings and cool buyer demand in Melbourne suggest that the southern capital city faces oversupply. So do home buyers have more power than we thought?

Yes and no. Home buyers, or owner-occupiers, have more choices in Melbourne right now – therefore, they have an easier time negotiating prices. However, renters face a steep uphill battle. 

Rental prices in Melbourne surged over +10% in 2023, and vacancy rates fell to less than 1%. Melbourne is also catching a significant chunk of incoming migrants flooding to Australia. Now, the average rent for a Melbourne house is $550, says PropTrack.

So it seems that while not everyone is in a position to buy a house, more than enough Melbournites are searching for a place to live. 

The rental market is key to becoming a home buyer

These insights into Melbourne’s strange property market support the long-held theory that a strong rental market is great for home buyers. Anyone who doesn’t want to (or can’t) buy property will naturally fall back to renting. 

In the case of Melbourne, this data just means that while purchasing demand is low, housing demand is high. Home loans may be off the table for many Australians, but they still need an affordable living situation. And with rents showing no signs of slowing, that makes housing increasingly harder to afford – whether you’re just a renter or trying to save for that crucial home loan deposit. 

There is a strange silver lining. Owen suggests that strong overall housing demand will be good news for the property market when interest rates come down. 

Australians clearly want places to live; home buyer demand is just slow because affordability has been squeezed by high mortgage rates. When interest rates drop, it could let lower-income buyers into the Melbourne property market and steady the falling prices. 

Compare low rate home loans in the table below.

Compare low rate home loans - last updated 3 May 2024

Search promoted home loans below or do a full Mozo database search. Advertiser disclosure
  • Featured Product
    Mozo Expert Choice Badge
    Unloan Variable

    Owner Occupier, LVR <80%

    interest rate
    comparison rate
    Initial monthly repayment
    5.99% p.a. variable
    5.90% p.a.

    Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.

    Compare
    Go to site
    Details
  • Offset Home Loan

    Package, Owner Occupier, LVR<60%, Principal & Interest

    interest rate
    comparison rate
    Initial monthly repayment
    6.14% p.a. variable
    6.39% p.a.

    Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.

    Compare
    Go to site
    Details
  • Flex Home Loan

    Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, LVR <60%

    interest rate
    comparison rate
    Initial monthly repayment
    6.19% p.a. variable
    6.43% p.a.

    Competitive variable rate. Multiple offset accounts available. Borrowers can also make extra repayments. Redraw facility available. Simple online application process. 40% deposit required.

    Compare
    Go to site
    Details
  • Fixed Rate

    Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, <80% LVR

    interest rate
    comparison rate
    Initial monthly repayment
    6.54% p.a.
    fixed 2 years
    7.10% p.a.

    Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.

    Compare
    Details
  • Basic Home Loan

    Owner Occupier, LVR<60%, Principal & Interest

    interest rate
    comparison rate
    Initial monthly repayment
    6.14% p.a. variable
    6.16% p.a.

    Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.

    Compare
    Go to site
    Details

* WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.

** Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circumstances and interest rate changes.

^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards

Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.

While we pride ourselves on covering a wide range of products, we don't cover every product in the market. If you decide to apply for a product through our website, you will be dealing directly with the provider of that product and not with Mozo.